Sunday, November 2, 2008

Research

Result of strategies research:

System Ideas
double-ma crossing indicate trend
multiple-ma crossing show movement

resistance (n-ma + deviation offset)
bollinger height consolidate-breakout

zig-zag to tell trend HHHL/LLLH
trendline, pattern recognition

estimate, confirm and evaluate
reversal strength thru symmetry

acceptance and limits testing
exiting on breaking support

market, sector, counter analysis
profit size/win rate analysis

System Parameters
system tolerance levels
noise, cutloss, deviation

moving averages
5SMA/12EMA/20EMA - near term
5SMA/20EMA/40EMA - short term
20EMA/50EMA/100EMA - mid term
30EMA/100EMA/200EMA - long term

Trading Concepts
noise removal
range expansion
consolidation breakout

physics laws of motions - kinematics
chemistry energy bands - multiple MAs

setups using sentiment cycle
weather/earthquakes forecast
scientific forecasting principles

the longer price action moves horizontal
the more likely reversal than continuation

Updated Mar:
Like what I posted, in R&D only a couple of ideas from the drawing board end up in the end-product. We wont really know what works until subjecting it to rigorous tests. Even then, what works in the past will definitely not work equally well (or worse) in future.