Detached?

From the two trades pick up something for Project B:

Price trends is testing and establishing boundaries
Spotting the major trend is more impt than timing

Glad its over however dont feel happy making $5k in 5 days. I look around me. Life still goes on as per normal. Nothing has changed. Nothing to celebrate for. Am I getting desensitised?

People around are happier for me than myself. I wonder.. If a trader easily feel happy after making profits, wont he feel sad after taking losses? Wont his life and family be subjected to emotional rollercoaster..

Ecstatic instead at timing "same" gains as Citibank contest.

Checkpoint 2

The two trades on HSI and USDJPY are taken on a hit-and-run basis. Posted decision process to Channel NewsAsia stocks forum.

I use 3k out of 5k Citibank prize money to trade on Mon. So happen public holiday haha. When I close off remaining positions I waited and time the selling so that net gain for this campaign is 168%. I am selling although price actions favour upside.
(on hindsight it really did)

It makes no sense. Why am I doing that?

1. learn to detach from money and practice self-control
2. test my skills to time closing and yield a chosen profit
3. 68% gain is the gain I made in Citibank Stock Challenge

I did it. $8039.09 -> 168% gain from 3k capital


THE LESSON:
Remember the self-control practiced during this campaign and continue implementing high levels of self-control in future.

USDJPY

My first forex position. News is USDJPY crash thats why market crash. If I long HSI, then USDJPY should rebound.

Waited and enter on breakout. Taking real trades using portion of Citibank prize money.

Updated 30th Oct:


I have to keep reminding myself the big goal is research. I find most of my trading revelations are made when I am not active in market, when I have the space to ponder.

Thinking how to trade better is different from how to make profits. One satisfies long term growth, another short term gratification.

HSI Call

Purely countertrend hit-and-run. I told trader friends evaluate market after mid-Nov. For investors, evaluate after Mar 2009.


Updated 27th Oct:


Updated 30th Oct:


Updated May:
System takes large profits from trend following. There are times, however, that discretional interpretation can make huge gains. How to combine the two?

BIDU

Customer Q&A:

GOOG

Customer Q&A:

Fractal

I told my friends look at market again in Nov. For now, dont bother.


Based on symmetry of followthru in small triangle, the large triangle breakdown may bottom in Mar-Jun 2009. However, let market do whatever it wants. When time is ripe signs will appear. As traders we dont trade on our assumptions. We trade on facts and probabilities.

Updated May:
Market really rallied fabulously since late mar. There's value in discretional analysis, question is how to combine it with systematic analysis to derive a evolutionary fit model for trading survival?

System Z

Some time ago, I spent 2 months just studying HSI chart (1987-2008). I note down observations into revisions. It was System Z revision 3.3. Following is the updated version for Project B.

System Z 6.1

TECHNICAL PRINCIPLES
Zeroth Law - rule of buy resistance & sell support
Acceptance - trends is testing and establishing of boundaries
Consensus - huge tradable moves occur after consensus in price
Timeframe - trade in the direction of the next bigger timeframe
Symmetry - suggest potential support levels after trend reversal
Pattern - trading edge through probability of entry & exit points
Failure - every method is set to fail no method is always profitable

TRADING RULES
Public sustain strong trends
Patient entries decisive exits
Trade along with major trend
Have a cutloss and stick to it
Let profits run when running
Price never need a reason
Never ever average down

RISK MANAGEMENT
Trend-Following
Gambler's Fallacy
Sunken Cost Effect
Prospect Theory
Babe Ruth Effect
Kelly Formula
Two-Six Rule

TA Intro

Project B agenda for Oct is trading strategies research. Why not start by consolidating my knowledge?

Months ago, a business lead asked me to put up a one-day TA course. I prepared a set of course materials. Just this weekend, I updated those materials to include my latest techniques, while refreshing myself at the same time.

At the same time, I have been receiving inquiries if I teach TA and how much is the charges. Why don't I conduct a course based on Singapore stock market:

Introduction to Technical Analysis

• One-to-one course, over 2 sessions of 3 hours
• Includes both TA theory and hands-on practice
• Top Trader in Citibank Stock Challenge 2008
• Caught HSI bottom within 3% in October 2008
• Made 300% capital gains in November 2008



• 160+ slides with complete charts and explanations on:
  
  

  Introduction

  Its all about Trends

  Support and Resistance

  Candlesticks

  Chart Patterns

  Technical Indicators

  Why Prices Move?

  Putting to Practice

Preview slides discussing price consensus,
an essential technique to tell tradable trend:

Checkpoint 1

Thanks for wishing me good luck!

THE LESSON:
Never say its impossible.

How would I expect a non-fulltime trader with less than 2 years experience top the stock challenge? I never expect to win. I also never enter the contest thinking its impossible.

Contest

Business Times Citibank Stock Challenge

Will Ken Soh stand a chance at top 3?

Updated 15th Oct:

Signals

STI buy/sell signals from 3rd program.

3rd Prog

// my third AFL program - 5th Oct 2008
// base on trading along the major trend

// buy on breaking EMA resistance
// sell on breaking support or cutloss

// longterm parameters
MAValue = 200; NoiseLevel = 0.12; CutLossLevel = 0.12;

// EMA crossing up and down signals
EMACrossUp = Cross(Close, EMA(Close, MAValue));
EMACrossDown = Cross(EMA(Close, MAvalue), Close);

// using breakout of EMA for buy signal
Buy = EMACrossUp;

// breakdown with noise tolerance to avoid whipsaw
Breakdown = Cross(EMA(Close, MAValue), Close) AND
(abs(ValueWhen(Buy, Close, 1) - Close) > (NoiseLevel * Close));

// cutloss at specific percentage from buy price
Cutloss = Close < ((1 - CutlossLevel) * ValueWhen(Buy, Close, 1));

// using breakdown EMA or cutloss for sell signal
Sell = Breakdown OR Cutloss;