Sunday, December 20, 2009

Finance

A friend asked about this guys. Here goes..





On Retailers:
Amidst the bullish hype, we have to remind ourself one thing about human nature. This thing will eventually over-rule ta/fa and end up use by BBs to trap retailers.

When stock price cheap nobody wants. When expensive people start to notice. When very expensive people rush to buy. BBs often fake a markup for false display of strength. Distribution at high easier than at low where everyone rush for exits at first sign of trouble.

Many stocks form a lower low in mar'09 compare to oct'08. This hints that the long term channel we have now is a downchannel. Which means the fabulous rally we have for this year could just be a reaction rally in a major bear market. After a huge move up the only logical direction for next major move would be down. My advice is learn how to short. This skill will be handy some time down the road.

On Big Boys:
BBs and retailers relationship is symbiotic.
One side cannot exist without the other.

With no retailers, prices can never fly because professionals are sly enough not to buy high from each other. Without BBs, theres no one to take the lead with concerted moves that start trends.

What we can do is learn to read intentions of BBs and move with them.