Thursday, June 25, 2009

Properties

Thou not best setup, today is a good time to enter property counters. CAPLAND, KEPLAND, YANLORD, CITYDEV, etc..

Buying now is at high range of prices, consider runup since march. Good cutloss is essential. Original buy signals from system z is in march, sitting tight for long term sell signals.

Good setup is when price breakout resistance after bouncing off major support. So risk is low. However that does not mean sure will run. Many times breakouts of resistance are followed with more dropping. What is a better setup?



Updated 11th Jul:
Good setups make good hit-and-run trades (quick profits).
Better setups try to trade the major trend (big profits).

Market -> smell of death or selling drying up?


Updated 19th Jul:
This week better setups appear for broad market.


Updated 25th Jul:
The power of trading better setups.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Questions

After making 3 assumptions to understand technical analysis, I think we should ask 3 questions when coming up with a trading strategy.

Trend following strategy
What is an objective way to measure trend direction?
What timeframe parameters to use for the method?
How to reduce false signals during whipsaws?

Countertrend strategy
What is an objective way to measure trend limits?
What timeframe parameters to use for the method?
How to reduce false signals during real trends?

What is common for both?
The need for objective measurements to give consistency
The decision on choice of timeframe for chosen method
The need to reduce damages from false signal trades

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Assumptions

3 cornerstones of technical analysis.

Market discounts everything
I tend to believe that market moves towards and away from temporary equilibriums where price has factored in everything. Meaning, market is not efficient all the time.

Price often moves in trends
My guess is trends happen because market participants are forced to chase higher prices (social pressure when everyone else is making) and liquidate lower prices (broker's call to force sell).

History tends to repeat itself
This one standard. Recurring patterns of human behaviours dont change much over time. We may live in a different time however our nature is not that different from a thousand years ago.