DJ & UJ

Looks like market is at one of those decision making points now.

I am long in YANLORD. But not really siding bulls or bears until I have further information. Just like in FA we have to analyse the global economic and sectoral outlook, in TA its helpful to analyse global indices and sector leaders for a more wholesome picture.



For HSI, system z trailing stop is 20330, below low of 5th Oct. It has no sell signal yet since buy signal 13450 in march. By not trying to sell at the highest, trend following let us catch huge trends like this.

Updated 8th Nov:
Can I call support lines -> demand lines
... and resistance lines -> supply lines?

YANLORD

Example of a busted chart pattern.


Cant help but think of INDOAGRI. Huge run up. Months of sideway. False breakout. 80% drop in price. Same story.. Same outcome? Dunno. We follow actual price actions instead of own opinion.


Updated 8th Nov:

Got out of YANLORD switch to SGX/NOL.

COSMO

STI breakout this week. Went long hoot a counter.
This's why I covered shorts at low two weeks ago.

Oil breakout this week too. Looks like Chairman's system (www.maoxian.com) exit the long trade before system z.


The buy signal for STI has happened 3 times since march. Each time its followed by huge advance in market. This week buy signal is the 4th time. When the perfect buy signal fails, it becomes the perfect signal for bears to launch their real attack. See how as it unfolds.

Updated 25th Oct:


Updated 8th Nov:
Why I sold at 545. And not buy again.

Bull vs Bear

How can we tell if a chart is bullish or bearish?


Analyse index with stocks to gauge market health.


A friend ask me about oil. This is system z chart.


Updated 18th Oct:
DJ hit 10k this week. Oil breakout. You can see system z buy/sell signals resemble trendline analysis done by a human. With all five days up its a valid breakout, only how much more will it go.


System z's buy call on oil.

Short Trades

This week the fall spread to broad market and accelerated. My shorts seem to be working out, but a pity I didnt cut a long hedge in time.

Market normally needs huge volume to sustain a rally, but it can drop nonstop on tiny volume. Volume pretty light now we need to see more volume on the downside to represent conviction of bears.



Updated 5th Oct:
Market had a selldown today. Queue at asking price over lunch. Covered COSCO 111 and YONGNAM 255. Share why next time.

Updated 18th Oct:
This's why. COSCO went from 110 low back to my short price 124. YONGNAM recovered two-third of lost ground, from 250 to 285.


Market is like a huge aeroplane, it usually takes time to bottom (or topping) before u-turn for real. The way prices drop two weeks ago is similar to how a crash starts. The prior formation is more likely to justify a minor downtrend only. It "crashed" instead, so I covered.

If it drift down, I would ride trend. If there is prior major topping formation but price drift down instead of crashing, I'll cover too.