GOLD

Gold reaction rally on the cards.


Possible consolidation extension for NOL.


Updated 3th Jan:


Updated 10th Jan:
Closed GOLD, hit tp as planned.

Finance

A friend asked about this guys. Here goes..

On Retailers:
Amidst the bullish hype, we have to remind ourself one thing about human nature. This thing will eventually over-rule ta/fa and end up use by BBs to trap retailers.

When stock price cheap nobody wants. When expensive people start to notice. When very expensive people rush to buy. BBs often fake a markup for false display of strength. Distribution at high easier than at low where everyone rush for exits at first sign of trouble.

Many stocks form a lower low in mar'09 compare to oct'08. This hints that the long term channel we have now is a downchannel. Which means the fabulous rally we have for this year could just be a reaction rally in a major bear market. After a huge move up the only logical direction for next major move would be down. My advice is learn how to short. This skill will be handy some time down the road.

On Big Boys:
BBs and retailers relationship is symbiotic.
One side cannot exist without the other.

With no retailers, prices can never fly because professionals are sly enough not to buy high from each other. Without BBs, theres no one to take the lead with concerted moves that start trends.

What we can do is learn to read intentions of BBs and move with them.

S&P 500

If we breakdown for correction now, this bull might have a longer way to go. If we go straight up now, only sooner to end of music.

As we move towards end of ascending triangle in mid Jan, broad market behaviour will hint bias of eventual breakout/breakdown.


See how NOL changing shape from h&s to wedge to channel.

Updated 25th Dec:
S&P rallied 24 points from this setup.

TIONGWOON

This guy may be in process of forming right shoulder.


Its hard to believe theres upside in market when local stocks pretty dead without vol. HSI price movements neutral-bullish undertone?


Updated 25th Dec:

Tipping Point

There's some counters at tipping point. Eg NOL, JAYA, MERMAID.

Market is a fickle place. The best time to sell often coincide with best time to buy. We have to be flexible and get out if price goes against us.


If we do our thing properly most of time will run and we just need to cutloss short let profit run. Know what kind of trade we are getting into and use the appropriate exit. No plan heart sure take over dunno how to sell when ripe. Know the conditions to sell before you buy.

This make good profits:
Swing trading entry -> swing trading exit
Position trading entry -> position trading exit

This not make profits:
Swing trading entry -> position trading exit

This make small profits:
Position trading entry -> swing trading exit

Rain Soon?

Market may look bullish, however it can well be a case of rallying to give people 2nd chance run road from Dubai selldown.

DJ daily chart has broadening shape again which last few times selldown. HSI may be in process of forming right shoulder. These are other side of coin we should keep in mind when in profitable longs.




Update on NOL/SGX.

Updated 25th Dec: