Sunday, May 9, 2010

SEMBMAR

Miscellanous updates..

This aftermath of the MERMAID trade I shared. Took 1 month of waiting for right time to buy. Then another month for right price to sell. The drop in two weeks after I sold was terrible. While its rare for such price/volume pattern to die off like that, it did this time. For traders buying on retracement, the only thing that would protect them would be sticking to their pre-set cutloss.


Two weeks ago I posted on market about to make a huge move. Solid rally or severe correction. The "red market next week" condition was fulfilled and market started the severe correction. HSI futures saw a move from 21400 down to a low of 18600. DJ futures saw a move from 11200 down to a low of 9900. Honestly the sharp selloffs were tough for retailers like me to catch and profit from, but at least those who followed would have closed off longs before the plunge started.


It is not the time to start shorting. However those holding longs should cut if price has hit their pre-set cp. That's traders way of buying insurance against sometimes unbelievable plunges in market. Market may just continue drop non-stop but this potential shorting profit is not for retailers to take, we have to give a miss. Price has move off some distance from last short base and shorting now can face risk of sharp short-squeezes. My recommendation instead is:

For short-term traders:
Wait for formations to go long to appear

For long-term traders:
Wait for market to stabilise and trend

For traders on wrong side of market:
Cut on hit cutloss and guard re-entry

For traders on right side of market:
Consider lock profit when stop growing

SEMBMAR something cooking. Worth adding to watchlist. Other counters worth waiting for potential technical rebound formation would be NOL/KEPCORP/YANLORD/GENTING. Midterm trend is obviously down. Bias down until demand appear again. Let's wait.